Su-35 Flanker E
UPI reports from Moscow that Russia and China are nearing a $4 Billion (USD) deal that would supply China with 48 Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets, with one major caveat remaining:
“The sides have practically agreed on the delivery of 48 Su-35 multi-role fighters, worth $4 billion, to China,” a Russian Federation Ministry of Defense source told Kommersant business newspaper.
It is not a done deal however, as the Russian Federation is demanding that China guarantee the protection of copyrights on the production of Su-35s without proper licensing (Source: UPI).
This author finds immense humor in a world where nations believe China capable of protecting foreign copyrights and patents, and can only imagine the SU-35′s various systems being plied open and analyzed before their new birds are even “out of the box.”
Unfortunately, it may behoove Russia to bring this Su-35 deal to fruition, regardless of the ripe potential for technology theft.
Russia and China are making motions to cozy up as allies as the US turns its attention back towards the Pacific. Providing China with a fighter that’s generally considered superior to the US’s F-35 is a massive counter against East Asian nations currently considering purchases of Lockheed Martin F-35s for their countries. This deal would cause quite a sudden uptick in Chinese air power against its regional neighbors.
And that’s without even factoring in the probability of Su-35 technology being co-opted into Chinese aircraft designs…
As a final note, China has been wanting Su-35s from Russia since the first sign that Russia was ever willing sell them (early 1990s). Things have never properly coalesced. A win by China here would signify a fairly significant change in Russia’s attitude towards their Southern neighbor.
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Craig was born & raised in the United States, having recently returned there after over five years in Asia. He is currently pursuing further education in the realms of East Asian Studies and Politics. Craig is an avid fan of the political, economic, and military machinations occurring throughout the Asian continent and how those turning gears affect the rest of the world. He's currently covering both North and South Korea for Asia Security Watch, enjoying shedding light on to this far-too-often ignored slice of Asia.
Craig Scanlan has 81 post(s) on Asia Security Watch
4 comments
arkhangelsk says:
Mar 6, 2012
I'm a Carlo Kopp supporter and generally thinks he makes sense, but the man has enough enemies that one should hesitate to call his opinion "generally". For the particular page linked, technically it is not a Carlo Kopp page but it is on Kopp's website so he is responsible for it, and I do have to side with the other side that thinks ApA is going a little too far to bash the F-35.
That point aside, there are two ways to view this as far as Russia goes. The less good side is that Russia is running into money troubles again like the 90s and has to again turn to the short-term expedient of selling fighters better than its mainforce fighter. At least they are re-equipping with -35BM simultaneously, and selling more fighters will help keep unit costs down.
The more optimistic view is that Russia considers PAK-FA such an advancement over Su-35BM that they are willing to eat the near certainty that at some point the Chicoms will cheat. Or they know more about the Chinese ability to really copy their stuff than we do – as of last report, China for all its boasts about the WS-15 or even -20 is still having trouble emulating 1980s AL-31F levels of durability with its WS-10, so the Russians may be gambling they can't copy the really vital stuff in time for it to matter.
Either way, as far as the Asian Security environment is concerned, this is probably more good news than bad because it is an indication that while China may have specific areas where it is getting competitive, the overall picture is far from being as rosy as some like "Feng" make it out to be. The news of relative immaturity of China's military-industrial base is more important than them getting a few new fighters.
Craig Scanlan says:
Mar 7, 2012
Arkhangelsk,
I agree that the F-35 receives more knocks that it merits, but I just get a general sense of it not being quite up to snuff no matter where I go around poking. I actually hesitated for a bit while wording that sentence, but think that the F-35 rings as somewhat underwhelming.
I started thinking about it the other day in regards to the US's planned F-35 sales with Turkey and my thoughts were along the lines of "either the US is totally happy with this technology falling into Russian hands or they're completely ignorant morons." I'd like to hope it's the former, and if it is, that would indicate that the F-35 tech isn't really at the top end of US tech (along with being just generally "export grade" and widely shopped around). I linked to the site realizing that folks were bound to chime in, but that analysis breaks it down quite well, if potentially a bit more one sided than the reality of the situation. At the absolute least, China will now be fielding an even match to the F-35 (IMHO).
On that same line, I completely agree that Russia must consider the PAK-FA a significant upgrade to the SU-35 to begin considering the Su-35 something of an "export grade" itself. While Russia isn't the normal area of my focus (though increasingly, it is), I'm under the opinion that Russia is somewhat more selective and financially well off than it was in the early 1990s, so stand by the fact that this potential sale is a bit of a change for them.
As for China's military-industrial base, I tend to agree with your point in terms of their ability to copy this stuff and the time it may take them. Unfortunately, Japan's is obviously lacking (b/c they want to) and Korea's is always below what they'd like to believe, and often the Western version of China in their tendency to "copy" Western designs. I'm quite pessimistic about KAI's KF-X fighter, but I guess the ball is in there court for them to surprise me.
At the end of the day, China fielding SU-35s at least breaks even with what others will be fielding, and I'm still of the opinion that it'll probably be a notch above.
Regardless, makes things in the region a bit more fun. ;-p
Alejandro says:
Mar 16, 2012
The SU-35 and Pak-Fa are both far superior to the F-35 similar in a manner to how the Mig-29 and Su-27 were both superior to the F-16.
Even the F-20 Tigershark was known to outmaneuver and best the F-16 in duels conducted by Nasa. The better question is the F-35 and it's variants better to what we currently field? If you compare the current lightweight fighter fleet then clearly their is no doubt of the massive investment into the F-35.
F-35A > F-16 Fighting Falcon (in service) "Lightweight Fighter"
F-35B > AV-8 Harrier (in service) "Attack Aircraft"
F-35C > F-18 Super Hornet (in service) "Strike Fighter"
The real problem is wither the F-35 can replace the specialized and heavier Combat Aircraft retired without replacement.
F-35A < A-10 Warthog (in service)"Close Air Support, Attack"
F-35C < F-14 Tomcat (retired 2006) "Interceptor, Strike Fighter"
F-35C < A-6 Intruder (Retired 1997) "Attack, Medium Bomber"
F-35A < F-111 Aardvark (Retired 1996/98) "Interdictor, Bomber"
F-35C < S-3 Viking (Withdrawn from service 2009, lone example operational with Nasa) "Anti Submarine, Tanker, Anti Surface Warfare"
F-35A < F-15 Eagle (in Service) "Strike Fighter"
Few country's are investing into lightweight fighters these days and the Russians prefer to use larger twin engine aircraft to defend the sheer size of the Federation.
Only Japan is currently developing a small-medium size stealth fighter that could in theory be truly superior to the SU-35 but it will be smaller than either the J-20 or the Pak-Fa and highly limited if it ever gets into production.
Europe is avoiding any stealth fighter or alternate strike aircraft being satisfied with the Dassault Rafael, AMX International, SAAB Gripin and Panavia Tornado for most uses and the Euro-fighter Typhoon for most others. Currently they are focusing on unmanned aircraft to try to cut costs.
F-35 is good enough to replace the F-16 but not effective enough to replace the F-15 which is and will continue to be the backbone of the air-force into the 2020's.
"Only the F-22 which we don't export, has that capability."
Alejandro says:
Mar 16, 2012
I forgot to mention the Philippines is fast tracking the purchase of International AMX's from Italy for their modernization program.
This is of course after the AMX International's surprisingly effective performance in the Libyan Intervention in which it and the Dassault Rafael earned their first combat stripes.